Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Droughts in Semi-Arid Regions by Using Meteorological Drought Indices

Six meteorological drought indices including percent of normal (PN), standardized precipitation index (SPI), China-Z index (CZI), modified CZI (MCZI), Z-Score (Z), the aridity index of E. de Martonne (I) are compared and evaluated for assessing spatio-temporal dynamics of droughts in six climatic regions in Iran. Results indicated that by consideration of the advantages and disadvantages of the mentioned drought predictors in Iran, the Z-Score, CZI and MCZI could be used as a good meteorological drought predictor. Depending on the month, the length of drought and climatic conditions of the region, they are an alternative to the SPI that has limitations both because of only a few available long term data series in Iran and its complex structure

Seasonal forecasting of green water components and crop yields of winter wheat in Serbia and Austria

A probabilistic crop forecast based on ensembles of crop model output (CMO) estimates offers a myriad of possible realizations and probabilistic forecasts of green water components (precipitation and evapotranspiration), crop yields and green water footprints (GWFs) on monthly or seasonal scales. The present paper presents part of the results of an ongoing study related to the application of ensemble forecasting concepts for agricultural production. The methodology used to produce the ensemble CMO using the ensemble seasonal weather forecasts as the crop model input meteorological data without the perturbation of initial soil or crop conditions is presented and tested for accuracy, as are its results. The selected case study is for winter wheat growth in Austria and Serbia during the 2006–2014 period modelled with the SIRIUS crop model. The historical seasonal forecasts for a 6-month period (1 March-31 August) were collected for the period 2006–2014 and were assimilated from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast and the Meteorological Archival and Retrieval System. The seasonal ensemble forecasting results obtained for winter wheat phenology dynamics, yield and GWF showed a narrow range of estimates. These results indicate that the use of seasonal weather forecasting in agriculture and its applications for probabilistic crop forecasting can optimize field operations (e.g., soil cultivation, plant protection, fertilizing, irrigation) and takes advantage of the predictions of crop development and yield a few weeks or months in advance

Agricultural Meteorology and Climatology

Agricultural Meteorology and Climatology is an introductory textbook for meteorology and climatology courses at faculties of agriculture and for agrometeorology and agroclimatology courses at faculties whose curricula include these subjects. Additionally, this book may be a useful source of information for practicing agronomists and all those interested in different aspects of weather and climate impacts on agriculture. In times when scientific knowledge and practical experience increase exponentially, it is not a simple matter to prepare a textbook. Therefore we decided not to constrain Agricultural Meteorology and Climatology by its binding pages. Only a part of it is a conventional textbook. The other part includes numerical examples (easy-to-edit worksheets) and recommended additional reading available on-line in digital form. To keep the reader's attention, the book is divided into three sections: Basics, Applications and Agrometeorological Measurements with Numerical Examples

Seasonal forecasting of green water components and crop yield of summer crops in Serbia and Austria

A probabilistic crop forecast based on ensembles of crop model output estimates, presented here, offers an ensemble of possible realizations and probabilistic forecasts of green water components, crop yield and green water footprints (WFs) on seasonal scales for selected summer crops. The present paper presents results of an ongoing study related to the application of ensemble forecasting concepts in crop production. Seasonal forecasting of crop water use indicators (evapotranspiration (ET), water productivity, green WF) and yield of rainfed summer crops (maize, spring barley and sunflower), was performed using the AquaCrop model and ensemble weather forecast, provided by The European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast. The ensemble of estimates obtained was tested with observation-based simulations to assess the ability of seasonal weather forecasts to ensure that accuracy of the simulation results was the same as for those obtained using observed weather data. Best results are obtained for ensemble forecast for yield, ET, water productivity and green WF for sunflower in Novi Sad (Serbia) and maize in Gross-Enzersdorf (Austria) - average root mean square error (2006-2014) was lt 10% of observation-based values of selected variables. For variables yielding a probability distribution, capacity to reflect the distribution from which their outcomes will be drawn was tested using an Ignorance score. Average Ignorance score, for all locations, crops and variables varied from 1.49 (spring barley ET in Gross-Enzersdorf) to 3.35 (sunflower water productivity in Gross-Enzersdorf)

An Approach for Calculation of Turbulent Transfer Coefficient for Momentum inside Vegetation Canopies

A method for calculating the profile of turbulent transfer coefficient for momentum inside a vegetation canopy for use in land surface schemes is presented. It is done through the following steps. First, an equation for the turbulent transfer coefficient for momentum inside a vegetation canopy using the “sandwich” approach for its representation is derived. Second, it is examined analytically to determine whether its solution is always positive. Third, the equation for the turbulent transfer coefficient is solved numerically, using an iterative procedure for calculating the attenuation factor in the expression for the wind speed inside a vegetation canopy that is assumed to be a linear combination of an exponential function and a logarithmic function. The proposed method is tested using 1) the observations for the wind profiles in a Japanese larch plantation and a pine forest and 2) the outputs for surface fluxes and total soil water content obtained by the Land–Air Parameterization Scheme (LAPS) with the forcing data and observations in a soybean field at the Caumont site in France during the 1986 growing season. Also, a test is performed that compares the proposed method with the method for calculating the turbulent transfer coefficients for momentum inside a vegetation canopy commonly used in land surface schemes

Langzeit-Monitoring der Auswirkungen einer Umstellung auf den biologischen Landbau (MBUIL V), Abschlussbericht

Auf einem Ackerbaubetrieb im Marchfeld in Niederösterreich wird seit dem Jahr 2003 eine umfassende Langzeituntersuchung zur Dokumentation und Entwicklung des biologischen Landbaus und agrarökologischer Begleitmaßnahmen durchgeführt (www.mubil.boku.ac.at). In der Projektphase MUBIL V wurden im Jahr 2014 spezifische Themen aus dem Gesamtmonitoring ausgewählt und fortgeführt. Die Untersuchungen fanden auf Betriebs-, Schlag- und Parzellenebene statt. Die Ziele des Projektes waren: (a) Wissenschaftlich abgesicherte Erkenntnisse über das Ausmaß und die Geschwindigkeit von Veränderungen der pflanzenbaulichen Entwicklung mit der längerfristigen biologischen Bewirtschaftung zu erhalten. (b) Erkenntnisse über die Auswirkungen unterschiedliche Düngungssysteme viehloser und viehhaltender biologischer Bewirtschaftung mithilfe pflanzenbaulicher Untersuchungen über vergleichende Versuchsanstellungen zu erlangen. (c) Erkenntnisse über die Wirkungen von Blühstreifen mit unterschiedlichen Ansaatmischungen und Pflegemaßnahmen auf die Wildbienen zu dokumentieren

A shared socio-economic pathway based framework for characterising future emissions of chemicals to the natural environment

Chemicals are used in all aspects of our lives and are either intentionally or unintentionally released into the natural environment, leading to chemical pollution which negatively effects biodiversity and ecosystem and human health. The world is going through socio-economic, climate and technological changes that will affect chemical emissions to the natural environment but the extent of these affects is unknown. Scenarios of future chemical emissions are therefore needed to inform research and policy decisions to protect the health of humans and ecosystems into the future. In this article, we present a framework, based on Shared Socio-economics Pathways (SSPs) in combination with Representative concentration pathways (RCPs), to develop future chemical environmental emissions scenarios for single molecules or groups of chemicals sharing similar features. The framework has 4 steps: 1) determination of the characteristics of the scenario; 2) review and prioritisation of socio-economics and climate drivers; 3) development of scenarios; and 4) consistency checks. The framework is demonstrated for antidepressant and insecticide emissions into European freshwater-systems in 2050. Output narratives provide multiple pathways of chemical emissions in the future and can be used by researchers, regulators, politicians, governments, and the private sector to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies to chemical pollution issue

Variability in the water footprint of arable crop production across European regions

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